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Life, liberty, and the pursuit of Pro Stock Motorcycle parity: What the numbers say

Of all the topics that got the drag racing populace fired up in 2024, the performance numbers and weight adjustments in the Pro Stock Motorcycle category were probably the most incendiary. But what does the data say? We've got the answers.
03 Dec 2024
Brian Lohnes, NHRA on FOX announcer
Behind the Numbers
Pro Stock Motorcycle parity

Of all the topics that got the drag racing populace fired up in 2024, the performance numbers and weight adjustments in the Pro Stock Motorcycle category were probably the most incendiary. The racers were pointed in their comments, and it got mildly chippy a time or two, but the internet really pulled the heavy artillery out when they chose sides in this (on paper, anyway) mundane issue. If many fans didn’t know what the weight rules were for the class before 2024, they sure knew them by the end of the season. 

The NHRA Technical Department is, of course, the group on top of this and all other mechanically related decisions that get made during a season, and they kept a close eye on Pro Stock Motorcycle in the dispassionate way that they have to. The men and women in that department cannot be influenced by opinions on social media, racer lobbying, or other outside forces. The numbers and the data have to tell them the story and provide the clues on where adjustments need to be made. 

So this may raise your first question. As Gaige Herrera was winning the first six races straight while making the first seven finals of the season in a row, how did the tech department not intervene and even the performance of the motorcycles up? 

The simple answer is that there was no reason to at that point in the season. 

Gaige Herrera

The wins and Herrera’s domination atop his Suzuki Hayabusa were actually hiding the real story of the first seven races of the season. Herrera and Matt Smith were effectively deadlocked in performance. Don’t believe it? Through the first seven races, including Seattle, Herrera averaged an elapsed time of 6.745 in qualifying. Matt Smith averaged 6.749. Herrera had four No. 1 qualifiers in that stretch, and Smith had three. 

Taking the first eight races into account before the midseason weight adjustment was handed down, Herrera had an overall qualifying elapsed time average of 6.738, and Smith was at 6.735. Yes, as it turns out, Smith’s motorcycle was marginally quicker in this period of time. The reason for the drop in their averages when Sonoma is added in is the fact that Herrera went 6.688 to qualify third and Smith went 6.655 to qualify first.

Matt Smith

On Aug. 5, the NHRA Tech Dept sent out a bulletin raising the weight of the Suzuki Hayabusa to 660 pounds, a 15-pound increase from its previous 645-pound fighting mass. The results were perhaps as one could expect. The Hayabusa slowed down, but when we get into the real details here, it’s pretty stunning. 

For the last seven races of the season — the Toyota NHRA U.S. Nationals through the In-N-Out Burger NHRA Finals — the motorcycles were seemingly as even as two completely different engine combinations could be. 

If we account for all the races, their average spread in qualifying is just two-hundredths of a second, but there’s a catch. If we remove Reading, where Smith’s motorcycle was off the pace (but still the No. 2 qualifier) and Pomona (where Herrera’s motorcycle was off the pace and he qualified third), we get to an average qualifying separation of .009-second for those remaining five races. That is insane. 

RaceHerreraSmithDifference

Indy

6.809

6.816

.007

Charlotte

6.812

6.799

.013

St. Louis

6.796

6.807

.011

Dallas

6.749

6.756

.007

Las Vegas

6.813

6.822

.009


Over the course of the entire season, Herrera and his mighty Hayabusa had an average eliminations elapsed time of 6.811 seconds, whereas Smith and his buckin’ Buell had an average of 6.826. Again, in a season where Herrera made 55 runs in eliminations and Smith made 45, we’re talking a .015-second average differential for the entire year, all runs included. 

Herrera averaged a 1.64 qualifying position, while Smith averaged a 1.79 qualifying position. There was some spread on average reaction time favoring Herrera, .034 to Smith’s .053, but this needs to be qualified. 

Matt Smith

Smith, as we all know, has a drag racing IQ that is off the charts, and he is tactical. It is clear that when he is well-qualified, and he has an opponent who does not present a high-level performance threat, he is very deliberate on the starting line as to not foul out of what should be a slam-dunk victory. Both men are capable of sawing the Tree over when the time calls for it and both did with regularity during the year. 

As far as speed goes, Herrera averaged 200.03 over the course of qualifying runs with Smith at 200.62. In eliminations over the whole season, Herrera was 196.67 through the traps for the year and Smith was 197.84. Those are small, small differentials. 

Herrera won four of their five head-to-head matchups with Smith garnering the fifth with his final-round victory at the In-N-Out Burger NHRA Finals. One of Herrera’s victories over Smith was due to a centerline by Smith and one was on a holeshot. While he beat Smith by a tenth in the Gainesville final to start the year, the other flat-out runs between the two had a margin of .007 favoring Herrera in Dallas and .017 favoring Smith in the Pomona final round. 

There are times when certain incremental numbers are highlighted as a reason for making a weight or performance adjustment to a combination in a particular racing category. If one were to simply use the 60-foot clock readout as a number to make class adjustments on, Herrera’s motorcycle would probably weigh 700 pounds, but that would be a red herring. 

In the end, each combination, the high-strung, small-bore and stroke, four-cylinder Suzuki and the large-bore, long-stroke V-Twin, will perform differently on different parts of the dragstrip. The larger engine will have a better deep-breathing capability at rpm while the smaller combination, which is quicker revving and uses a shorter gear ratio, will explode off the line harder. 

Gaige Herrera

The numbers at the quarter-mile strips in 2024 tell a story of pretty incredible balance among the top riders and performers in the class. Frankly, to measure the parity of the combos, you have to look at those that are at the top of their game on each style of motorcycle, as this removes human error (as much as is possible) as a factor for one style of engine out-performing another. A poorly ridden motorcycle with the best engine in the class is still going to be a poorly performing entity.

There will be a faction that screams, “Well, what about sandbagging?” and, to them, we can only say that there’s no measurable way to truly compare runs that people consider “sandbagged.” This term, of course, means that a competitor is hiding their true performance by detuning the motorcycle, letting off early, or otherwise playing possum in some way. Frankly, any smart racer, especially at this level, is going to show their hand when they truly need to, and it looks to us that over the course of the year, they needed to a lot. You cannot end up with a preponderance of No. 1 qualifiers between two machines if either is lollygagging on purpose.

The cold, hard data seems to indicate that these motorcycles are very well matched and that the human element still has a massive hand in deciding the outcome of most of the races on the NHRA Mission Foods Drag Racing Series tour. While we can’t speak for you, we know that it’s that side of things, the performance of the people, that keeps us glued to this sport and this category.

Now, if you’ll excuse us, we’ll be under a table avoiding the flying objects being hurled by hardcore dyed-in-the-wool Pro Stock Motorcycle fans. Flame away!