NHRA - National Hot Rod Association

It’s easy to make the argument that the Pro Stock Motorcycle class features the most competitive battle of any of the four NHRA Camping World Drag Racing Series Professional championships. Just 30 points separate the top three riders in the class; Matt Smith, Steve Johnson, and Angelle Sampey, and while each has had their share of success this season, none of them have been dominant for an extended period. That makes the Auto Club NHRA Finals and the race for the title a near toss-up, with no rider having a sizable edge over the other two. There is every likelihood that the title won’t be decided until late Sunday afternoon, possibly even the final round.

Technically, there are still four riders in the running for the title since four-time champion Eddie Krawiec is mathematically eligible, but with 142 points to gain and three riders to pass, his odds are slim at best.

As a reminder, a total of 187 points is available for any Camping World Series competitor at the event. Before we start, let’s review how those points can be accrued:

Performance bonus points are awarded for each of the three qualifying sessions as follows:

Performance bonus points WILL NOT be awarded for any session unable to be completed.

Qualifying positions earn points as follows:

There are 30 points awarded for each round-win, which means the three contenders are all within one round of each other. That means that qualifying will be critical.  

Smith is the leader, and his Denso Buell has been perhaps the best performing bike during qualifying this season. Johnson is 20 points back following his Las Vegas win, and Sampey is 30 points out of first. While mathematically possible, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where Smith isn’t the leader going into Sunday’s eliminations. Sampey cannot pass him, and even if Johnson is the low qualifier for all three sessions and Smith qualifies at the bottom of the field, Johnson can only make up 19 points, (barring something unusual such as a oildown or centerline penalty).

The real question here is: Can Smith push his advantage to more than 30 points? That means he’d have a one-round cushion going into Sunday. It wouldn’t take much for Smith to expand his lead over Sampey. He’ll only need one more qualifying bonus point or to out-qualify the Vance & Hines rider by one or two spots, something he’s done consistently this year.

Picking up the necessary 11 points against Johnson, however, is another matter entirely. Smith can do it, but he’ll almost need to run the table with all 12 available qualifying bonus points and hope that Johnson stumbles. That’s also somewhat unlikely.

Assuming that the points gap stays the same headed into eliminations, Smith will have the upper hand. He’ll simply need to keep pace with Johnson and Sampey. If Smith goes out early, Sampey and Johnson would need to win at least one more round (possibly two) in order to pass him.

As the No. 3-ranked rider, Sampey’s path to a fourth title is a big more difficult, but not impossible. She’d need to win at least one more round than both Smith and Johnson, which means the championship is essentially still in her hands. Since Sampey is currently 30 points back, there is also the possibility of a tie.

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head record during the Countdown to the Championship. Sampey has not raced Smith yet, so we’d move to the second tie-breaker, which is rounds won in the Countdown. Sampey currently holds that edge with 13 to Smith’s 11. For what it’s worth, Johnson has 12 wins during the Countdown, and he’s got a 2-0 record against Sampey, and he’s yet to race Smith.

The fine print:
All of this happens under the specter of possible centerline violations that would cost either 5 points for crossing the centerline after the finish line and before the 1,320 mark (and going up in five-point increments to a max of 15).

Fact:
Johnson is the most experienced racer in the history of the class with 461 races under his belt. Smith has 281 starts, and Sampey has 276. The only other active riders with more than 200 are Andrew Hines (298), Karen Stoffer (260), and Eddie Kraweic (239).

Quotable:

“It’s gonna be intense in Pomona, and we wouldn’t want it any other way.” – Matt Smith

"I really, really want to bring home a championship. Matt [Smith] has four and Angelle [Sampey] has three, and I want one.” – Steve Johnson

“We didn’t pull off a Vegas-style win, but we know we’re headed into the NHRA Finals on fire.” – Angelle Sampey

TLDR:
If Smith can maintain his current advantage after qualifying, Johnson or Sampey would need to win at least one more round than he does to win the title.