Who will make the Countdown to the Championship
With two national events to go before the Countdown to the Championship begins, let’s look at the drivers still looking to clinch a spot in the playoff race. At least, the ones in danger of missing the dance. Yes, John Force has yet to reach safety, but with a 207-point lead and four drivers behind him, we’re going to let cooler heads prevail and call him safe before the math does. The same goes for a handful of bikes still needing a few round wins to clinch a safe place.
Still with us? Cool. Grab your Mello Yello and join us on the Road to the Countdown as we figure out who’s in, who’s out, and who’s likely to stay there before we show up in Brainerd, Minn. In a little over a week. We’ll start with Top Fuel Dragster, just because.
Top Fuel Dragster
TERRY MCMILLEN
Place: 8th
Points: 690
Why he’ll make it: After reaching his third career final, McMillen now holds a 154-point cushion over 11th-place Shawn Langdon. Even better? He needs to be passed by Langdon, Troy Coughlin Jr., and Scott Palmer to fall out of the Countdown. The Xtermigator isn’t a sure thing, but he’s darn close.
Why he won’t: He fails to win another round over the next two races, loses points due to oildowns, and everybody behind him finds the luck they’ve been missing all season. That’s about what it’ll take.
SCOTT PALMER
Place: 9th
Points: 606
Why he’ll make it: He has done a remarkable job of not messing anything up this season. That’s not a backhanded compliment: It’s a tough thing to do when tuning a car in a nitro class. That has him 70 points to the good right now, and that might be enough.
Why he won’t: Palmer will be the first to say they’ve been conservative recently. Perhaps they’ve been a little too conservative, opening the door for Coughlin and Langdon to pass the team by.
TROY COUGHLIN JR.
Place: 10th
Points: 560
Why he’ll make it: Forget the Auto Club Road to the Future Award: Coughlin just wants to get into the Countdown right now. A season that started promising enough (two round-wins in three races) could get back on track anytime. We’ve seen what Coughlin is capable of in the driver’s seat.
Why he won’t: The talented group of people tuning the car won’t get a handle on the dragster in time, and Coughlin won’t get a hang on driving the nitro-burning beast before the Countdown begins. Oh, and he’s being chased by a former champion.
SHAWN LANGDON
Place: 11th
Points: 536
Why he’ll make it: Because he’s a former champion that’s too good to be kept out of the Countdown by this string of rotten luck. He only needs to pick up 24 points in two races on a driver that’s struggling mightily right now
Why he won’t: Because that would fit into the nightmarish season Langdon is having. He’s lost on holeshots to Mike Salinas and Scott Palmer and fell in the first round to Terry Haddock to Denver. If he didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.
Funny Car
TIM WILKERSON
Place: 8th
Points: 759
Why he’ll make it: Unless something truly disastrous happens, Wilkerson will coast into the Countdown. The biggest battle for him? Holding onto the No. 8 spot as J.R. Todd is right behind him.
Why he won’t: Let’s be honest: He’s making it.
J.R. TODD
Place: 9th
Points: 756
Why he’ll make it: After getting that race win in Sonoma, Todd all but sealed his spot in the Countdown. Now it’s all about trying to move up a spot and get the tune-up down.
Why he won’t: Imagine the worst-case scenario. Now double it. Now double it again. OK, I guess now he might miss it.
CRUZ PEDREGON
Place: 10th
Points: 601
Why he’ll make it: He holds the No. 10 spot, and first-year crew chief Aaron Brooks feels they’re very close to getting everything figured out. That eight-point lead is tenuous, but it’s a lead.
Why he won’t: It only takes one mishap for that lead to go away, and it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Cruzer this year. It might’ve taken too long for the Snap-on team to get things worked out.
JIM CAMPBELL
Place: 11th
Points: 593
Why he’ll make it: With just eight points to make up and a couple of semifinal appearances under their belt, we know what Jim and Jon Dunn are capable of. Campbell has improved immensely behind the wheel, too. They just need a little luck: welcome to Funny Car.
Why he won’t: In the glass half empty or glass half full stat of the day: Every car battling for a Countdown spot has made a run in the three-second range this year except for that of Campbell. That’s a little concerning.
JONNIE LINDBERG
Place: 12th
Points: 579
Why he’ll make it: Like just about everyone below the thin red line, Lindberg has a shot if he goes rounds in the last two races. He’s shown he can do it after going to two finals earlier this year, too, but it’s put up or shut up time.
Why he won’t: A little of bad luck cost the team round-wins, and missing four races this year hasn’t helped matters, but neither has completely missing tune-ups at good tracks like the one in Sonoma two weeks ago. Another strikeout like that will spell doom for Lindberg’s playoff hopes.
DEL WORSHAM
Place: 13th
Points: 573
Why he’ll make it: His car has steadily improved in qualifying, running consistently in the 3.9-second range, and that might make it a threat over the next two races.
Why he won’t: Because despite that qualifying consistency, the car has run quicker than 4.5 seconds once since Bristol on Sunday. The good news? It was in Seattle. The bad news? It didn’t result in a victory.
ALEXIS DEJORIA
Place: 14th
Points: 552
Why she’ll make it: She’s got the best car out of the bunch right now, picked up a round-win over a fellow Countdown hopeful in Lindberg, and could win a race if the cards fall for her. It’s a big ask, but it could absolutely happen for DeJoria.
Why she won’t: Because missing those three races created a hole too big to climb out of, and there are too many drivers to pass. She’ll have to be just about perfect to get into the Countdown; that’s very tough when driving a Funny Car.
Pro Stock
CHRIS MCGAHA
Place: 9th
Points: 645
Why he’ll make it: Well, he has a 125-point lead on 11th-place Alan Prusiensky with two races to go. How does that sound?
Why he won’t make it: McGaha won’t be attending the Brainerd race, so if Prusiensky gets his first win of the season in Minnesota, the heat will be on. Hey, stranger things have happened in Pro Stock.
ALLEN JOHNSON
Place: 10th
Points: 600
Why he’ll make it: With an 80-point lead, and a car that just beat Greg Anderson in Seattle, Johnson looks like a safe bet to make the Countdown this year.
Why he won’t: With points-and-a-half in Indy, Prusiensky is certainly not out of it. So, Johnson might want a little extra cushion in Brainerd.
ALAN PRUSIENSKY
Place: 11th
Points: 520
Why he’ll make it: If he can pick up his second round-win of the year in Brainerd, that would make his chances a whole lot better. In all reality, he’s got four rounds to make up on Johnson, so he’ll have to go deep in Brainerd or Indy to get in.
Why he won’t: There might be too much ground to make up this late in the season, and his car hasn’t made the necessary power to get the job done.
Pro Stock Motorcycle
JOEY GLADSTONE
Place: 8th
Points: 395
Why he’ll make it: First year as a full-time rider, Gladstone is already establishing himself as one of the best riders in the class, and he’s got a solid bike under him with a Vance & Hines-powered Suzuki combo.
Why he won’t: Very little chance he misses the Countdown, but team owner Joe Riccardi is essentially on his own as far as tuning right now. The team had been working with the Underdahl/Stoffer group until recently.
KAREN STOFFER
Place: 9th
Points: 376
Why she’ll make it: After some early struggles this season, the team recently scrapped their fuel-injection program for carburetors, and they’ve been rewarded with some of the quickest elapsed times of her career.
Why she won’t: With a 61-point cushion between her and 11th-place Steve Johnson, there is very little chance that she won’t make the Countdown. Since she’s a guaranteed qualifier at every event, it would take a big effort by Johnson (or anyone else) to knock her out of contention.
ANGIE SMITH
Place: 10th
Points: 337
Why she’ll make it: Maybe the biggest surprise of the 2017 season, she’s very comfortable aboard her Buell-bodied entry and it shows. She should make the top 10, but will likely need to win a round or two at the next couple of events to make it happen.
Why she won’t: For all the good things she’s done this season, there are still occasional slip-ups that could hurt her chances. Breakage has also been an issue at times in the Smith camp. She opened the season with three straight first-round losses. That performance cannot be repeated at Brainerd and Indy.
STEVE JOHNSON
Place: 11th
Points: 315
Why he’ll make it: When this bike is on, it’s as good as almost any Suzuki in the class. Should he find the right combination, he could go to a final and even win a race, which could get him into the top 10. He’s also a former Indy winner, so he knows how to win rounds at the Big Go.
Why he won’t: Because he’s Steve Johnson. He’s horribly inconsistent and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see him with a pair of round-one losses in Brainerd and Indy, which would be devastating.
ANGELLE SAMPEY
Place: 12th
Points: 272
Why she’ll make it: She’s 65 points back with two races left. That’s a tall mountain to climb but with points-and-a-half available in Indy, it’s not insurmountable. The Liberty team hasn’t had much luck this year, but if she’s going to make a final round (or even a semi) this would be a good place to start.
Why she won’t: Growing pains. This is a new team that got off to a slow start and has played catch-up all season. Expect good things from them in 2018, but barring something really special in Indy, the three-time champ won’t make the Countdown.
CORY REED
Place: 13th
Points: 252
Why he’ll make it: Perhaps the longest of longshots, he’s got to make up 85 points in two races. The Indy bonus helps, but he’s going to have to win at least three or four rounds to do it.
Why he won’t: See Sampey above. New team, growing pains. Planning for next season already.